Swine Flu

New swine flu infections intensify travel fears
Tue Apr 28, 2009 7:37pm EDT
By Catherine Bremer

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - New swine flu infections were found around the world on Tuesday and the specter of a pandemic hit the travel industry as governments warned people to stay away from Mexico where 149 people have died. [ This is probably because governments in every country fear people in their country will have a swine flu from Mexico then spread to home country easily that increase their national economic downturn. This is as tourists try to avoid riskful situation such as this infection, political turmoil. ]

The number of infections in the United States rose to 65, Canada has 13, and new cases were also confirmed in Israel and New Zealand.

The United States, Canada and the European Union are telling people to avoid non-essential travel to Mexico, and Cuba suspended all flights to and from Mexico for 48 hours.

Travel companies were also staying away. Carnival Cruises canceled stops at Mexican ports for three of its ships on Tuesday and Canadian tour operator Transat AT postponed flights to Mexico until June 1.

President Barack Obama asked the U.S. Congress for $1.5 billion to finance its response to the flu threat, and California declared a state of emergency, allowing it to deploy more resources to prevent new infections. [As the cloest country to Mexico, the U.S. must awake of this situation the most by taking serious action to cure and protect their population. As the world's leading country, the U.S. must resolve this problem as fast as possible in order that world's economic will be better.]

The World Health Organization said a pandemic -- a global outbreak of a serious new illness -- is not yet inevitable but that all countries should prepare for the worst, especially poorer developing nations.

"They really get hit disproportionately hard," said the WHO's acting assistant director-general Dr. Keiji Fukuda.

One of the mysteries of the outbreak is why the virus has killed scores of people in Mexico while the cases outside the country have been relatively mild and no one has died. [As, the centered country of a pandemic, Mexican people have infected a swine flu longer than others. So, I think people outside Mexico will die a few months later.]

Experts say this may be simply a matter of where they have been looking to find it [Agreed] and officials say they expect to find deaths as the disease spreads.

A pandemic could snuff out fragile signs of economic recovery around the world as travel, trade and manufacturing output would all be hit. [Agrees; especially travel business because people are afraid of going out country.]

The last flu pandemic was in 1968, when "Hong Kong" flu killed about 1 million people around the world.

Seven countries have confirmed cases of the swine flu [these are Mexico, U.S., Canada, U.K., Spain, Israel, and New Zealand] and a dozen others have suspected infections. [e.g. France, Brazil, Australia]

Mexico City is at the center of the outbreak and many residents are staying in their homes while schools, churches, cinemas and restaurants have all been shut down.

Airline share prices declined again on Tuesday on fears that they could experience a sharp drop in traffic.

U.S., European and Asian stock markets all retreated despite positive U.S. consumer confidence data as flu fears and worries about American banks weighed on sentiment.

"Prices remain in a bit of a swoon as market participants fret that a potential influenza pandemic might prove fatal to the frail signs of recovery just beginning to show," said Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president at MF Global in New York.

Oil dropped almost 2 percent to below $50 a barrel [this causes the air ticket cheaper] and investors cut their exposure to riskier currencies.

The swine flu virus is not caught from eating pig meat products but several countries, led by Russia and China, banned U.S. pork imports. [This is because these two countries have not found the flu right now. So, they try to prevent as much as they can, probably called 'over-reaction'] The EU said it has no plans to restrict pig meat products from the United States.

TRAVEL ALERTS [this seems to be the major role played with economic worldwide]

A barrage of travel warnings by foreign governments and travel firms threatened to batter Mexico's tourism industry, a main source of foreign currency for the country.

UK travel firms Thomson Holidays and First Choice decided to repatriate their customers from Mexico and cancel flights bound for Cancun, although most airlines continued to operate their services.

Many private companies took their own precautions, restricting travel to Mexico and other countries with confirmed cases. Honda Motor Co, which like most major auto makers has production facilities in Mexico, has suspended all global business travel until at least May 6.

Experts say that while it is impossible to stop the spread of the disease, efforts to slow its progress could buy crucial time for countries to procure essential drugs.

The WHO's Fukuda said a mild pandemic is possible but he also cautioned that the 1918 "Spanish" flu that killed tens of millions of people emerged from mild beginnings. [This is also possible to kill over millions of people.]

Worldwide, seasonal flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people in an average year.
In Mexico, people from company directors to couriers wore face masks while airlines checked passengers for flu symptoms.

The government has shut all schools across Mexico until at least May 6. Restaurants, bars, cinemas and even churches in the capital have been closed to limit new infections.

Residents rushed to stock up on food, water and surgical masks but the usually hectic city is otherwise very quiet.

Mexico says the first fatal case that alerted authorities to the strange new virus was in the southern state of Oaxaca but they have not yet found the origin of the outbreak.

(Additional reporting by Maggie Fox in Washington; Jonathan Lynn and Laura Macinnis in Geneva; Helen Popper, Robin Emmott and Mica Rosenberg in Mexico City; Jeff Franks in Havana; Tan Ee Lyn in Hong Kong; and Lincoln Feast in Singapore; Writing by Kieran Murray; Editing by Chris Wilson)

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE53N22820090428

Swine flu spreads economic shivers
By: AFP
Published: 27/04/2009 at 07:56 PM

The global outbreak of swine flu sent shivers through financial markets on Monday just as some signs had appeared that the global economic crisis might be easing.

Mexicans pedestrians wear surgical masks in Tijuana. The global outbreak of swine flu sent shivers through financial markets just as some signs had appeared that the global economic crisis might be easing.

Travel and tourism took the brunt of uncertainty about how the threat of a pandemic might crimp economic activity [Almost regions fall. Howover, Asia tends to be the first choice of all tourists; especailly North American and Europe, since Asia now finds only person in South Korea], but the pharmaceutical sector rose as attention turned to defensive medical treatments and equipment. [Not surprised bacause people want to prevent themselves from pandemic]

Shares in Swiss drug giant Roche surged and then settled with a gain of 3.51 percent on prospects of a surge in demand for its treatment Tamiflu, a focus of interest during previous alerts over bird flu.

An analyst at Vontobel in Switzerland, Andrew Weiss, said: "When fear about bird flu really took hold in the fourth quarter of 2005, the price of shares (in Roche) rose strongly."

In 2006 and 2007 Roche had made sales of Tamiflu worth a total of 4.0 billion Swiss francs (2.65 billion euros, 3.49 billion dollars), he recalled.

Rapidly spreading concern about possible international contagion from a fatal outbreak of the human version of flu originating in pigs also pushed up the yen.

In Tokyo, the yen firmed to 96.75 against the dollar from 97.13 in New York late on Friday. Analysts said that the dollar was weakened in part by growing concern over the impact of the new strain of swine flu.

"The outbreak of swine flu in Mexico is a concerning development for the global economy," said Societe Generale analyst Patrick Bennett. "Initial investor reaction has not surprisingly been towards risk aversion."

Pig flu also drove down oil prices with the threat of a drop in air travel, analysts said. [Logically]

In New York, light sweet crude for June delivery fell 2.59 dollars to 48.96 dollars. Brent North Sea crude fell 2.31 dollars to 49.36 dollars a barrel in late morning trade in London.

In London, Manoj Ladwa, a senior trader at financial spread-betting firm ETX Capital in London, said: "Swine flu is ripping through the markets creating uncertainty in its wake."

He added: "US markets are sure to be heavily affected by this crisis when they open later today." [Agreed]

With the World Health Organisation warning that the outbreak could become a pandemic, the United States declaring a public health emergency and the European Commission calling an urgent meeting of health ministers, stock markets recoiled in alarm.

Amid uncertainty over the possible implications of anxiety over flu on economic activity, notably in such sectors as tourism and retailing, investors and analysts took the line of caution.

In London the FTSE index of leading shares was showing a mid-morning fall of 1.20 percent, Frankfurt stocks fell by 1.05 percent and the Paris CAC 40 index fell 1.83 percent.

Stocks in Tokyo edged up 0.21 percent but traders said they were held back by concern about the effects of the flu outbreaks. In Hong Kong they fell by 2.74 percent, and in South Korea by 1.05 percent.

"News over the weekend of a deadly flu outbreak is rocking financial markets," said Matt Buckland, dealer at financial spread-betting firm CMC Markets.

"After last week's gains many would have been looking to start locking in profits," he said, referring to recent rises in share prices reflecting some optimism that the global economic crisis may be flattening out.

"But clearly this (flu) news has the potential to become a rather serious development."

In Europe, shares in German airline Lufthansa were showing a fall of 10.60 percent and shares in Air France-KLM were down by slightly more than nine percent.

British Airways stocks were down 7.26 percent, shares in travel agency Thomas Cook 7.87 percent and in travel group TUI 5.52 percent.

Stock in cruise liner group Carnival showed a fall of 6.50 percent and Rolls Royce, which makes engines for aircraft and ships, saw its shares fall by 4.43 percent.

But companies making drug treatments were strong. GlaxoSmithKline gained 3.58, AstraZeneca 1.55 percent and Shire 1.21 percent.

In Tokyo, airline and tourism shares were hit by the swine flu worries. Travel agency H.I.S. tumbled 10 percent while Japan Airlines dropped 5.2 percent on fears that tourists and business travellers may cancel their overseas trips.

But Chugai Pharmaceutical, which sells the Tamiflu drug, climbed 14 percent.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/141683/swine-flu-spreads-economic-shivers

Swine flu casts shadow over economy

Just as signs point to downturn abating, illness deals blow to confidence
The Associated Press
updated 3:47 p.m. ET April 27, 2009

LONDON - Uncertainty over the swine flu outbreak cast a shadow over the struggling global economy Monday, raising fears that that the spread of the virus could harm trade and tourism and undermine businesses just as they begin to rally.

Airline stocks plummeted as major travel companies in Europe and Asia cancelled tours to Mexico, the epicenter[epidemic+center of the outbreak] of the outbreak. Pharmaceutical companies rallied on expectations that demand for anti-viral drugs may surge to deal with any pandemic.

It's far from clear how bad the outbreak will be, but any blow to travel and trade could eat away further at world gross domestic product, already forecast by the International Monetary Fund to shrink 1.3 percent this year in the first decline since World War II. Top finance officials meeting in Washington over the weekend said recovery could emerge by the end of the year. [Officials predict swine flu will be destroyed, or at least weaken within this year. This is based on two latest flu, Avain and Sars, that could solved less than one year]

"On top of a synchronized global financial and economic crisis, an outbreak of swine fever is the last thing we need just now," [He hopes other bad things will not happen anymore (sarcastic speech)] said Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group.

The virus is suspected in up to 103 deaths and 1,600 more cases in Mexico while 40 cases were confirmed in the United States and six in Canada.

Both Swiss drug maker Roche Holding AG — the maker of Tamiflu — and GlaxoSmithkline PLC, which manufactures the Relenza drug, rose 4 percent in European trading. Gilead Sciences Inc., which developed Tamiflu and receives royalties from Roche, rose 4 percent.

Not all countries have significant stockpiles of the Tamiflu and Relenza. It will take months for pharmaceutical companies to produce a vaccine, starting from a seed virus.

Businesses went over their crisis plans and weighed up the potential lost productivity if the virus spreads and work forces are crippled [Agreed]. London-based risk management company Business Forums International said its phones ran hot on Monday as hundreds of companies made inquiries about contingency plans to deal with the absenteeism that that could come if the outbreak turns into a worldwide pandemic.

BFI program manager Elizabeth Smith said that many businesses were better prepared since the bird flu scare in early 2006 put pandemic risks higher on their agenda — the group has held 20 conferences in the past three years involving some 10,000 businesses across Europe, albeit focused on fears of a bird flu, rather than swine flu, outbreak.

Meanwhile, tourism operators across Asia and Europe cancelled tours to Mexico after EU health officials urged Europeans on Monday to postpone nonessential travel to the United States and Mexico.

TUI Travel, Europe's biggest tour operator, said it was suspending all trips to Mexico City through May 4. Japan's largest tour agency JTB Corp. has suspended Mexico tours until at least June 30.

Irina Tyurina, a spokeswoman for the Association of Russian Travel Agencies, said that around 30 percent of people booked to travel to Mexico in early May had cancelled their plans. Tyurina said that Russian travel agencies were in talks with their Mexican counterparts to receive refunds for hotels and services.

The fears about the impact on the global economy were reflected on stock markets around the world, which fell in Asia; European stocks slid but recovered the lost ground on news of General Motors' restructuring plan in the United States.

"This is an already dangerous time for financial markets so to have this specter developing right now is certainly just cause for some very real concern," said CMC Markets analyst James Hughes, adding that the outbreak could undermine the fragile confidence beginning to return to global stock markets since the lows of early March.

In Asia, the disease brought bad memories of the SARS epidemic in 2003, which spread rapidly via air travel and devastated Asia's tourism industry, cutting annual international arrivals by more than 15 million and costing the region $11 billion. [Asia got this lesson that is why this time Asia has much more serious security of this outbreak. Asia reacts and respond immediately such as using temperature detector at airport, reserved antiviral drugs Oseltamivir and N95 masks, giving knowledge and the prevention to people and so on.]

Fearing a replay, investors sold down airlines, many of them already suffering losses from depressed international travel amid the economic crisis. Lufthansa fell 9.2 percent, British Airways was 7.75 percent, Hong Kong's flagship carrier Cathay Pacific dropped 8 percent, while Australia's Qantas Airways lost 4 percent.

"We are in the midst of an industry downturn and this is certainly unwelcome," said Andrew Herdman, director-general of Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines, which represents one-fifth of global passenger traffic and one-third of global cargo traffic. "But this is a potential public health emergency and it will have to be a priority."

In the U.S., American Airlines owner AMR Corp. and United Airlines' parent company UAL Corp. slumped around 15 percent after the open. In Europe, Deutsche Lufthansa AG fell 9 percent, while British Airways PLC was down 8 percent.

The risk that the share slump could spread further as more industries become affected was highlighted by a 5 percent fall in the stock price of British food company Cranswick, which has just bought a domestic supplier of pork for the country's biggest retailers.

Despite the lack of any evidence that swine flu can be transmitted through eating meat from infected animals, consumer concern is likely to result in falling demand. [not surprised]

Japanese restaurant chain Matsuya Foods Co. said it will temporarily suspend as a precautionary step some pork dishes that use imported Mexican pork. Pharmaceutical companies rallied on expectations that demand for anti-viral drugs may surge to deal with any pandemic.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30436341/



My Reaction

1. All countries seem to be too panic. For example, they don't eat pork and ban Mexico; avoid visiting country, not allowing Mexican into others such as China. In fact, the pandemic isn't from animal-to-human. Eventhough, Mexico is the pandemic's center, it's not the right way to act like this. We should have usual lifestyle that we can go out side by using the masks and always checking health.

2. Swine flu is not a lesson from Mexico and America, but it is the lesson for the whole world that we have to prepare or care about this since it was in the phase 1 or 2, which still infect in animal only. This is because it is easier step to be cured.

3. Previously, avian flu and Sars destroyed Asian ecomomic seriously. This time Asia alearts to the latest flu by responding situation quickly such as using temperature detector at airport, reserved antiviral drugs Oseltamivir and N95 masks, giving knowledge and the prevention to people and so on.

Conclusion

Though swine flu affects world's economic, Asia tends to have the least affect because it now find only person in South Korea that means Asia is the least reiskful region now. So, Asia should change this crisis to be the new chance since tourists now see Asia as their first choice to travel.

In stead of suspecting each other, all countries should help together to struggle this problem which leads to have better ecomonic.

Moreover, WHO should give more about the right knowledge and prevention to the whole world instead of focusing on warning so much that makes people paranoiac then over-react of the situation.